Arkansas Derby Analysis – Matt Dinerman
At 0h22, on March 29, 2025 • By Matt Dinerman (Oaklawn Track Announcer)
The 2025 Grade 1 Arkansas Derby offers a purse of $1,500,000 and 100 Kentucky Derby points to the gold medalist.
We’ll go with the fan favorite Coal Battle (8), who is undefeated in five starts on dirt. He always shows up, tactically can work out a good trip from any part of the racetrack and has the heart of a champ.
Cornucopian (9) may be the most gifted horse in the race, but it’s a big ask to win at nine furlongs after just one sprint run. He won on debut the right way though, setting a contested pace before kicking away from the competition for a 6-length win and a 101 Beyer speed figure. Taiba won the 2022 Santa Anita Derby using the same game plan-one race, a six-furlong victory, followed by a nine furlong win in the SA Derby. So, it can be done, and if anyone can do it, it might be Cornucopian.
Sandman (6) hasn’t been on the lucky end of things in his last two starts-stumbling terribly at the break in the Southwest before running on for second, and third last out in the Rebel over a surface that catered to speed. He’ll enjoy any added grounded he can get, but he’ll need to run down the top pair, both who have more tactical speed and strong finishing abilities.
Publisher (3) enters this race still a maiden. He has shown plenty of talent though, and now adds blinkers for the winningest trainer of all time Steve Asmussen. A possible surprise package if he can put it all together with the equipment change. Bestfriend Rocket (4) and First Division (2) ran 1-2 in an allowance race recently and merit respect for an underneath placing.
