Kentucky Derby 2019

Saturday, May 04, Churchill Down, Race 12
KENTUCKY DERBY
1M1 / 4 | Dirt

# 5 Improbable, # 8 Tacitus

# 16 GAME WINNER 5/1

+ 3 G1 wins at the age of 2 with a record of 4 in 4 and 1.5M in
stock Exchange. On March 16th in the Rebel, finishes 2nd in Omaha Beach at his
first departure in 2019. On April 6th in the Santa Anita Derby G1 has passed
the race in the 4th road despite only 6 horses at the start and
despite a more than commendable effort, was beaten by Roadster who had nothing
race. Ultimate start!

– Beat twice in 2019 by immediate competitors, only 3 times over
19 that the best 2 year old horse wins this event also at 3 years old. No speed
Byers in the 100 and bad starting position.

# 17 ROADSTER 6/1

+ Perfect in 2019. Winner of Santa Anita Derby after an operation at the
throat for breathing problem, able to run in the pace or
off of pace, the most expensive horse in this $ 525K race.

– No horse has won the Derby from this position. Mike Smith told him
favorite Omaha Beach. He will have to make two moves to win and Geroux is
rather frigid in traffic.

# 5 IMPROBABLE 6/1

+ Ideal position for his style of running which is to be in the group
following the leaders. Second in The Arkansas Derby despite a missed start,
he shows 3 wins on 3 different tracks in addition to a good workout in 48
breezing at Churchill ” important on this track ”. He too will be at
his ultimate start with Irad Ortiz 24% … Blinkers Off.

– March 16th beaten by Loug Range Toddy who has no chance today.
On April 13, once on the side of Omaha, he stagnated. Two victories won
against 6-horse packs.

# 7 MAXIMUM SECURITY 10/1

+ Perfect for life 4 in 4, he has just won the Florida Derby of yarn. He has
of pure speed, only 3 Beyers in the 100+ in this race
and it counts 2. It will be “pace” so if the track is good or slow, it will be
advantage.

– Like to run ahead and have customers in this race. He has never
really been looked at in the eye, so what will be his reaction versus
real G1 for the first time.

# 8 TACITUS 10/1

+ Two consecutive wins in G2 races and the last of brilliant
way after being pushed a few times but had to keep calm
to explode in the straight line. It will be at his ultimate departure from more brid
at a maximum, her mother Close Hatches is the winner of 9 lifes in 14
departures for gains of $ 2.7M including 5 races G1.

– needs a fast flow because during these victories, the track favored
the closers. Never faced G1, will William Motts finally win?
a Derby?

———-Conclusion——————-

# 7 MAXIMUM SECURITY 10/1 has pure speed and even though
never been challenged in the past, he should be able to fractions
fast for the first mile. If nobody looks at him in the eye, he
could be dangerous. In addition the # 16 GAME WINNER 5/1 will have to place
this position, no question of falling in the last third because his race
will be finished and he will be at his ultimate departure. He has already used the
speed at the beginning in the past. The # 5 IMPROBABLE 5/1 should have a
excellent course because he will be able to study the options of this position of
departure and will have Irad Ortiz who is more aggresive than are brother Jose. The
# 8 TACITUS 10/1 has won its last two races in the G2 and
find to raise class but has the pedigree to overcome this obstacle.
It will need a quick flow and if it does, it will be my choice
to win this event.

Proposed bet: Saturday, May 04, Churchill Down, Race 12

Win Place Show # 8

Exacta Box: 5,8 with 2.5,7,8,16,17
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 2.7,13,16,17
Trifecta: 5,8 with 2,7,13,16,17 with 5,8

Exacta in box: 5,8 with 2,5,7,8,16,17

Trifecta in box: 5,8 with 5,8 with 2,7,13,16,17

Trifecta in box: 5,8 with 2,7,13,16,17 with 5,8