2024 Kentucky Derby analysis

A full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage, Dornoch (1) won the Remsen (G2) and Fountain of Youth (G2) with pacesetting tactics. But making the lead from post 1 will require a sharp break and an intense early sprint.

With a hot pace expected in the Kentucky Derby, stretch-running Blue Grass (G1) and Risen Star (G2) winner Sierra Leone (2) is among the most likely horses to take advantage. He’s already defeated nine of the other 21 horses entered in the Derby.

Mystik Dan (3) took advantage of an inside-favoring track to dominate the Southwest (G3), then finished a distant third in the Arkansas Derby (G1). His pedigree hints distances shorter than 1 1/4 miles might be his true wheelhouse.

Catching Freedom (4) unleashed a powerful finish from off the pace to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) over Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Honor Marie. He’s steadily improving for Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox and is another runner who stands to benefit from a hot pace at Churchill Downs.

Catalytic (5) finished second by 13 1/2 lengths in the Florida Derby (G1) after tracking eventual winner Fierceness. With a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating, he’ll need improvement to challenge on the first Saturday in May.

A veteran of 11 starts, Just Steel (6) exits a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1), in which he finished nicely on the clock while matching his career-best 97 Brisnet Speed rating. Don’t count this son of Triple Crown winner Justify out of the mix for a top-five finish.

Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Down last fall, Honor Marie (7) prepped for the Kentucky Derby with a strong runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), beaten only one length by Catching Freedom. A top-five finish while returning to Churchill is surely within reach for this deep-closing colt.

Just a Touch (8) has early speed, but after finishing second in the Blue Grass (G1) and Gotham (G3), it’s fair to wonder if he can carry his speed over 1 1/4 miles at this point in time. His lone victory from three starts came in a six-furlong sprint.

Encino (9) enjoyed early success over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park, where he rallied to win the John Battaglia Memorial S. But then he switched tactics and led all the way to win Keeneland’s Lexington (G3) on dirt. Encino is versatile in terms of running style and has improved with every start, so he’s an intriguing Kentucky Derby longshot for Brad Cox.

The first of two Japanese-bred colts in the Kentucky Derby field is T O Password (10), who led all the way to win the Fukuryu S. on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. But T O Password escaped with a modest pace that day and will have to deal with a lot more speed in the Kentucky Derby.

Forever Young (11), second Japanese raider, is undefeated in five starts and exits a two-length victory in the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai. He isn’t the quickest horse out of the starting gate, but a fast pace at Churchill Downs should give him a fair chance to catch up down the homestretch.

Pure speedster Track Phantom (12) led all the way to win the Lecomte (G3) and most recently finished fourth after setting the pace in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He’s adding blinkers for the Kentucky Derby and looms as a potential pacesetter, but it remains to be seen whether he can carry his speed over 1 1/4 miles.

West Saratoga (13) won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs last year and has recorded top-three finishes in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and Sam F. Davis (G3) this season, but his career-best 89 Brisnet Speed rating looks a little light.

Powerful stretch runner Endlessly (14) has won four stakes on turf and synthetic, including the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), but he’s yet to race on dirt. Switching surfaces is a question mark, though he has the right running style to benefit from a fast pace.

Domestic Product (15) has been compromised by slow paces in his last two starts, but he nevertheless rallied to finish second in the Holy Bull (G3) and first in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). A fast pace in the Kentucky Derby could set up Domestic Product for a career-best performance.

Grand Mo the First (16) has shown talent finishing third in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Florida Derby (G1), but he was beaten 16 lengths in the latter race while earning an 88 Brisnet Speed rating that looks a little light against the Kentucky Derby field.

The Kentucky Derby favorite has struggled with consistency, but when he brings his A-game, he’s fantastic. Fierceness (17) dominated a deep edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) by 6 1/4 lengths and prepped for the Kentucky Derby with a 13 1/2-length romp in the Florida Derby (G1). Those efforts yielded powerful Brisnet Speed ratings of 112 and 106, stamping Fierceness as the horse to beat at Churchill Downs.

Never out of the top two in six starts, Stronghold (18) exits a determined neck triumph in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), which has ranked among the most productive Kentucky Derby qualifiers of the last dozen years. It’s possible 1 1/4 miles is farther than Stronghold wants to run, but it’s hard to knock his accomplishments and consistency.

Resilience (19) couldn’t keep up with Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom when finishing fourth in the Risen Star (G2), but he improved to a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed rating when taking the Wood Memorial (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths. Resilience is progressing in the right direction and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Society Man (20) closed nicely from midfield to finish second in the Wood Memorial, earning a 102 Brisnet Speed rating. That effort marked a big jump forward from Society Man’s previous form, but as a son of Good Magic (the sire of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage), Society Man has the pedigree to handle 1 1/4 miles and shine on the first Saturday in May.