The analysis leads to Elsa

On August 15th in Saratoga in the 9th race (5½ Furlongs | Lawn), Bolton Landing Stake $ 100,000, a Win and placed bet of $ 20 on No 6 Elsa (5/1) as well as a $ 2 Exacta on 6 with 2,3,4,7 and 1 $ on 2,3,4,7 with 6. A stake for two years on the grass is never an easy cause especially when the majority of them shows us an only one victory, but what was the opposition ? In this kind of “race” exercise, it is important to know the quality of the beaten horses. No 3 Shang Shang Shang, 4 Chelsea Cloisters and 8 Stillwater Cove are all trained by Wesley Ward 27 % and all broke their maiden (no career wins) on a distance of 4½ Furlongs on the ground and all three while running forward. So it is difficult to know their reaction to adversity. No 2 Drynachan is, in my opinion, the horse to beat. Paid $ 130,000 and under the tutelage of Chad Brown 30 %, he broke his maiden on turf on a 5½ Furlongs by coming back from the back but quick runs may have helped the cause and the final time is average. No 6 Elsa beat a horse that was 3/5 decisively and despite normal fractions, she exploded in the straight without ever being commanded by her jockey.

Jockey: Joe Bravo 23 % — Coach: Mr. Stidham 17 %

Proposed Bet: August 15^th, Saratoga, race 9

Win and Placed: Horse No 6

(Win: the chosen horse must finish first at the finish line)

(Placed: the chosen horse must finish among the first two at the finish line)

Exacta: 6 with 2,3,4,7

Exacta : 2,3,4,7 with 6

(Exacta: Choose two horses that must finish first and second, in the chosen order)